Capital allocation · Case study

bp: fund the best returns within the capex range

Fund each year’s projects on expected return, inside the capex range.

By OneShot · Updated October 23, 2026

Read the solution ↓

What the workflow produces

Capital allocation plan

Requests: Amount by year, expected return, risk and owning business.
Allocation: Funded, part-funded and unfunded requests within each limit.
Trade-offs: Change in total return when a limit or a committed project moves.
Decision: Approved allocation, conditions and quarterly spend against it.

The documented problem

On February 26, 2025, bp announced what it called a fundamentally reset strategy. Its chief executive said: “We are reducing and reallocating capital expenditure to our highest-returning businesses to drive growth.” bp cut annual capital expenditure to $13 billion to $15 billion to 2027, and raised oil and gas investment to about $10 billion a year through 2027, with expected returns above 15%.

Investment in transition businesses fell to $1.5 billion to $2 billion a year, more than $5 billion a year below bp’s previous guidance. These are bp’s own targets. Under a fixed range, every dollar funded in one business is a dollar refused in another. The OneShot workflow below allocates each year’s budget across funding requests within the range.

bp: Growing shareholder value, a reset bpPrimary source · Checked 2026-10-23

The OneShot solution

Capital funded on expected return within the cap

Fund the requests with the highest expected return inside the capex range, each one funded, cut or deferred on a recorded decision.

What it pays back

Expected return on the capital spent

Counted per funded request, its expected return against the hurdle rate, inside the budget limit.

Work enters the queue: The annual planning round, a request above its budget line or a project whose cost or return estimate changes.
Decision owner: Chief financial officer, with the investment committee

01
Collect the requests
Read each funding request with its amount by year, expected return, risk rating and owning business, and the limit on each budget line. Return requests without a return case to their owners through the goal’s private request page.
- Capital budget and funding requests
02
Test the return cases
Check each return case against its stated price and cost assumptions, and research the published outlook for the prices it depends on. Flag any return that rests on an assumption outside the company’s planning range.
- Deep Research
- Capital budget and funding requests
03
Solve the allocation
The OneShot agent uses its optimization tool to fund the set of requests with the highest total expected value within the overall budget and each line’s limit. Projects the board has committed to are funded in full; others may be funded in part. Unfunded requests stay on the plan with the amount they asked for.
- Solve
- Capital budget and funding requests
04
Get the plan approved
Give the chief financial officer the plan, the requests it cuts or defers and how the total return changes when a limit moves. Run the cases the investment committee asks for and record the approved allocation.
- Capital budget and funding requests
05
Release and follow the funds
Give each business owner its approved amount and conditions on the goal’s request page. Compare spend with each approved line every quarter; a project over its line, or with a lower return estimate, goes back to the allocation.
- Capital budget and funding requests

What counts as complete

Every request is funded, part-funded or deferred on the approved plan, and the total stays inside the capex range.

Decisions and exceptions

Return cases belong to their owners; the agent flags assumptions and does not rewrite them.
Committed projects are funded first, and the plan shows what they displace.
The allocation is a proposal until the investment committee approves it.

What to measure

Expected return of the funded portfolio
Spend against each approved line
Requests returned without a return case
Projects re-allocated mid-year

Establish the baseline and review period before launch. Compare completed cases, unresolved work and reviewer corrections against the same scope.

The agent’s tool basket

OneShot gives its agents the tools to analyze records, communicate, research and act on authorized business data. The platform carries the workflow from the first action through to the recorded result.

Capital budget and funding requests
Read funding requests with amount by year, expected return and owner, and each budget line’s limit; record the approved allocation and spend against it.