Target: re-time purchasing on the demand forecast

Forecast weekly demand per item, then cut or move orders before stock lands that will not sell.

By OneShot · Updated October 23, 2026

Read the solution ↓

What the workflow produces

Order change plan

Forecast: Eight-week demand per item with 80% and 95% ranges.
Exposure: Stock and open orders against the forecast range, by item.
Changes: Orders to cancel, delay or cut, with cancel-by dates.
Confirmation: Planner decision and vendor confirmation per order.

The documented problem

On June 7, 2022, Target said it would take further second-quarter actions to right-size its inventory, “including additional markdowns, removing excess inventory and canceling orders,” and expected its second-quarter operating margin rate in a range around 2%. It said it was planning more conservatively in discretionary categories like home.

On August 17, 2022, Target reported a second-quarter operating income margin rate of 1.2 percent, against 9.8 percent a year earlier, and said Fall season receipts in discretionary categories were reduced by more than $1.5 billion. These are Target’s own figures. The OneShot workflow below forecasts weekly demand per item and re-times purchasing on it, before excess stock is bought.

Target: updated 2022 plan, June 7, 2022Primary source · Checked 2026-10-23
Target: second quarter 2022 earningsPrimary source · Checked 2026-10-23

The OneShot solution

Purchasing re-timed on the weekly forecast

Re-time purchasing on the weekly demand forecast, so open orders match what will sell and excess is cancelled before it ships.

What it pays back

Excess stock not bought

Counted per item and week, in units on order above the forecast’s upper bound that were cancelled or moved before shipping.

Work enters the queue: Each weekly sales close, a forecast outside its range or an order near its cancel-by date.
Decision owner: Merchandise planner for the category

01
Read the sales and orders
Read two years of weekly unit sales by item, with stock on hand, open orders and each order’s cancel-by date. Mark weeks distorted by stockouts or promotions so they do not drive the forecast.
- Sales, stock and order history
02
Forecast each item
The OneShot agent uses its prediction tool to forecast eight weeks of demand per item, with 80% and 95% ranges. The 95% upper bound sets the most stock worth holding.
- Predict
- Sales, stock and order history
03
Find the orders to change
Compare stock plus open orders with the forecast, item by item. List the orders that would land stock above the upper bound and the items short of the lower bound, with each order’s cancel-by date.
- Sales, stock and order history
04
Get the changes approved
Give the merchandise planner the list, with the cost of each change and the units it moves. Record the planner’s decision per order: cancel, delay, cut or keep.
- Sales, stock and order history
05
Change the orders
Send each vendor the approved change by email and chase confirmation before the cancel-by date. Record the confirmed change against the order; an unconfirmed change stays open.
- Email
- Email Inbox
- Sales, stock and order history
- Supplier and purchasing records

What counts as complete

Every open order outside the forecast range has a planner’s decision, and each approved change is confirmed by the vendor before its cancel-by date.

Decisions and exceptions

A change past its cancel-by date goes to the planner with its cost; the agent does not send it.
Items with too little history are forecast by the planner, not the model.
Vendor terms and penalties stay with the buyer.

What to measure

Weeks of supply against the forecast range
Markdowns as a share of sales
Order changes confirmed before cancel-by
Forecast error by item

Establish the baseline and review period before launch. Compare completed cases, unresolved work and reviewer corrections against the same scope.

The agent’s tool basket

OneShot gives its agents the tools to analyze records, communicate, research and act on authorized business data. The platform carries the workflow from the first action through to the recorded result.

Sales, stock and order history
Read weekly unit sales, stock on hand and open orders with cancel-by dates by item; record approved order changes and vendor confirmations.
Supplier and purchasing records
Read eligible suppliers and approved commercial boundaries; record buyer-approved terms.